Australian Property Market

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Australian Property Market

Post by Enigma » Mon Feb 02, 2009 11:06 am

Today the ABS has released “A Picture of the Nation: the Statistician’s Report on the 2006 Census, 2006″

One of the key summaries of the report is

Between 1986 and 2006, the number of private dwellings in Australia increased by 45% (or 2.6 million dwellings), while the number of people living in private dwellings increased by substantially less at 28%.

It begs the question, if we had such an oversupply of housing contrary to the severe shortage that the Real Estate Lobby groups tell us, what was the driver of house prices in the period 2001 to 2006? Hype?

Perhaps the Aussie property bubble will correct just like the U.S.A and U.K. where people were also told by people with a vested interest that there is a shortage of property!

Perhaps this is why?

http://www.earthsharing.org.au/2008/12/ ... t-release/
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Post by Gavin Shaw » Mon Feb 02, 2009 1:08 pm

Or like other things,

Greed...
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Post by danielmid » Mon Feb 02, 2009 3:01 pm

Same thing happened here in the US. We can absorb about 800k-900k new houses a year, and for a period of about 3 years we built 1.5 million houses a year. Talk about excess, jeeze.
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Post by Sarge_II » Mon Feb 02, 2009 7:30 pm

I have heard there are stupid laws in the US regarding paying, or allowing tax breaks to, or whatever, to farmers that allow part of their land to go un-farmed and (perhaps?_ similarly to landlords that do not fill all their apartments. Back in MI, one landlord tore down several buildings rented out to students, so that new complexes under the same landlord could be built and occupied within 1.5 years. How likely that the previous places were in poor condition? (Well, maybe.) But, how much better are the new places? How long before they're no better than the previous places on the same street?
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Post by Enigma » Tue Feb 03, 2009 9:28 am

We the stats here in australia show that there are investors and development companies that buy property and leave it vant.

1. Because property values never stop going up
2. Tenants make a mess

This has created artificial demand, pushing up prices and overheating the rental market with rental prices going up 15-20% / year!!

With access to money (credit) from banks drying up rapidly this is going to stop abruptly (and already has).

I think Aus is about 12 months behind the U.S. in terms of property market corrections.

Well thats my prediction.
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Post by Enigma » Sun Mar 22, 2009 6:53 am

Why first home buyers must beware

As someone that's been caught in the crosshairs of falling property prices (you can read my trauma here) I know all too well that home-buying is an unpredictable beast that doesn't always end in the financial security you hoped for.

At the risk of sounding like a bitter and twisted old bat, I can't help but be frightened for the rush of first home buyers being encouraged to enter the property market right now. ABS figures show 26.5 per cent of borrowers in January were first homebuyers -- the largest percentage in a long time.

Yes, buying your own home is a great step to financial security. Yes, rising rents in most capital cities make it more attractive to jump on the mortgage train. But is anyone encouraging first home buyers to save that 15 to 20 per cent deposit that means they won't have to fork out $5000 or more for mortgage insurance?

Is anyone warning them that they are signing up for a 25 or 30 year financial commitment at a time when interest rates are at an all-time low and unlikely to stay that way for the term of their mortgage?

And has anyone explained the next stage of the property cycle is likely to take longer to show capital price growth than previous cycles?

Devine Homes, who build in Queensland, Victoria and NSW, are offering No Deposit finance packages. And while it's now more difficult to get 100 per cent mortgages, the generous first home buyer grants of up to $21,000 plus stamp duty discounts mean plenty of would-be buyers aren't saving enough before they take the plunge into home ownership.

A new first home buyers survey by Mortgage Choice found 76 per cent of respondents currently want to purchase a house, up from 54 per cent a year before, yet more than half of those people wanting to buy have saved less than $30,000. Frighteningly, 15 per cent have saved nothing at all and will rely solely on the grants.

This also worries Fujitsu Consulting's Martin North, who conducts monthly research into Australian mortgage stress, and predicts that 164,000 Australians will be under severe financial stress that could force them to sell their homes by September this year.

"It just isn't right that the government and the real estate industry are relying on first home buyers to prop up the market," he says.

"We have a Global Financial Crisis and we've seen what's happened with property in the US, it should warn us that encouraging people to go into property and borrowing 95 per cent is not a good thing."

Australian Property Monitors' economist Liam O'Hara and SQM Research's Louis Christopher agree that first home buyers should aim for a 20 per cent deposit as a hedge against falling house prices.

"A minimum of 20 per cent deposit is a fair bit of money with the inflated property market, but it's what you need in today's climate," O'Hara says.

"If you don't, and you are forced to sell when prices fall further, then you will owe the bank the difference. You need that equity as protection," the Australian Property Monitors' economist says.

And Robin Matters, who runs Mortgage and Estate Realisations, says there's been such a rush of first home buyers at the lower end of the market that prices are now over-inflated for first home buyer properties.

"I'm advising people to wait until 2013 to buy. Right now $250,000 properties have shot up to $300,000 thanks to first home buyers and small time investors. My bet is that by 2013, those houses will be back to $225,000 after this cycle has run its course," he says.

And without wishing to add too much pessimism to the debate, Morgan Stanley economist Gerard Minack, who was one of the first to predict problems with Australian property, says he is expecting unemployment to be the thorn in the side of residential property this year.

"Unemployment is what kills borrowers. Moreover, it kills them regardless of where the cash rate is," he says, explaining that he expects unemployment to rise "significantly" by the end of this year.

So do first home buyers need to be more cautious? Should they take their time and save a larger deposit before taking the plunge or is it better to get in now while the grants are good? Or am I worrying for no good reason?

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Posted by Alex Brooks
March 16, 2009 2:42 PM
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Post by Gavin Shaw » Sun Mar 22, 2009 10:14 am

Save as much as you can. Get a bigger deposit. Minimise the amount of debt you have to get into to have even a basic small house...
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Post by DarkWaterSong » Sun Mar 22, 2009 10:18 pm

I love reading what you have to say in this thread!

I live in an area of Southern California that has almost hit max growth. In Ventura, CA there are strict laws protecting most of the undeveloped farmland and the few natural areas left. This means no new homes in "Little Silicon Vally."

My mom live in a home her parents bought in 1947 brand new. Needless to say, there is no mortgage on it...but she has watched her property taxes go nuts as her home's value artificially rose.

On paper she was supposed to own a $1.25 million home at one point! Now while I love the house, its only a 3 bedroom 1 bath on a 1 acre lot. Sure its in walking distance from a elementary, junior and high school and is in a great neighborhood. But at best it should be worth $750,000!

With greed driving the homes out of a normal person's reach in our area, we have a lot people that now find their home worth far less than the value of their mortgage. Now while there haven't been a rash of foreclosures, there are still a lot of people that are getting royally screwed because they have a $1million loan on a $500,000 house!
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Post by Enigma » Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:15 pm

Yes its called negative equity and it really hurts. Its also happening all over the place, especially in the U.K. and soon here in Australia!

The kicker here in Aus is that the Gov is handing out $21K to young people to get completely submerged in debt!! What are they thinking?!
Last edited by Enigma on Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Enigma » Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:16 pm

Gavin Shaw wrote:Save as much as you can. Get a bigger deposit. Minimise the amount of debt you have to get into to have even a basic small house...
IMO there should be mandatory 10-15% deposits for house purchases.

If they introduced this, the house prices would plummet and people may actually be able to afford to pay their mortgage.

But what ever you do, don't buy now.
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Post by Enigma » Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:18 pm

First-home buyers in the eye of a storm

Danny John
March 18, 2009

THE Australian housing market is facing the prospect of a "perfect storm" of financial pressures - including high mortgage debt, overvalued homes and rising unemployment - in which prices could eventually fall by as much as 30 per cent, investors have been warned.

Research compiled by international analysts has indicated that, while domestic house prices held up well amid the breaking global financial crisis, in the impact of the worsening local downturn they have come off their peak.

Prices are beginning to slide in line with declines in the US and Britain, the report suggests.

There, the fall in housing values has exacerbated recessions and prices have started dropping below or sharply back to what is described as "fair value" levels after nearly 10 years of soaring property costs.

The special report was compiled by BCA Research in Canada. It shows that the residential market fell 25 per cent in the US and 18 per cent in Britain last year.

By contrast, Australian prices slipped a "mere" 4 per cent from the all-time highs recorded in the first quarter of last year.

The authors of the report say the "ferocity of the price collapses" in the US and Britain was made worse by the meltdown in the financial services industry - a factor that is affecting Australia's two financial centres, Sydney and Melbourne.

"The housing market is looking particularly vulnerable, with overinflated prices, deteriorating affordability and slowing household income growth," the report says. "There is an increasing possibility of a major housing bust in Australia."

The authors of last month's report, which is now circulating among local investors, accept that a variety of positive factors could help cushion any fall.

These include past budget surpluses, the Federal Government's two stimulus packages, the strength of the Australian banks, which have avoided a "disastrous lending binge", falling interest rates and the drop in the value of the Australian dollar.

The report's conclusions are set against a background of tentative signs that the housing market is shrugging off the immediate effects of the downturn, helped in part by the Government's $14,000 first-home buyer's grant and an extra $7000 for people who purchase new homes.

Latest figures showed that $8 billion of new home loans were taken out at the end of January of which a quarter were advanced to first-time buyers who are driving a mini-revival in sales at the lower end of the market.

That has prompted the Sydney Chamber of Commerce to press the Federal Government to extend the level of cash support to first-time buyers beyond the current June 30 cut-off point.

Warning that the grant's removal could send the housing market into a tailspin, the chamber's executive director, Patricia Forsythe, said: "Next to the massive reduction in interest rates, the first home buyer boost has been the most successful stimulatory measure for the economy."
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Post by Gavin Shaw » Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:20 pm

I wonder if the big drop in interest rates and now a good chance of property prices dropping. If that happened, do you think the rents would go down?

Unlikely, especially if people are forced out of the home they are trying to pay off and into a rental at a time when the rental market is pretty much full (hence why they can jack up prices as someone will pay to get a roof). So the greed will remain.
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Post by Enigma » Thu Mar 26, 2009 11:49 am

IMO property prices will correct as unemployment rises. This is well underway in both the UK and the US, its going to happen here if unemployment gets up towards 10% (its now at 5.2 and jumped 1% in the last month).

Rental is an interesting situation. Again, with rising unemployment and reduced incomes (people moving to part time and or no job, or two income families back to one) prices will be pushed down. Another factor is that when things get tough people get creative and move back home etc which will all have an impact on vacancy rates AND rental rates.

However there is other evidence that the low vacancy rates for rental is artificial. See the below report

http://www.earthsharing.org.au/wp-conte ... report.pdf

Also, the ABS has some very interesting stats on dwellings vs. people in Aus over the past 18 years that support the above report.

HOUSING
Between 1986 and 2006, the number of private dwellings in Australia increased by 45% (or
2.6 million dwellings), while the number of people living in private dwellings increased by
substantially less at 28%.


http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/2070.0

There is a substantial amount of property that has been built and deliberately left VACANT! The view is that with property prices going up FOREVER I would be better off not having tenants (since they only make a mess of the place) and just hold onto the vacant property for a few years while it gains capital appreciation and then sell it. This is especially so in a low interest rate environment. However if the market drops this vacant real-estate may suddenly enter either the rental or buyers market which will also likely impact prices.
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Post by Enigma » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:33 pm

This is basically admission of a MASSIVE real estate bubble. Lets try and prop it up a bit longer! Note that this is just increasing the debt on your DEBTBOX. It will make little difference to those entering negative equity territory.

Banks agree to Swan mortgage-relief deal

HOMEBUYERS who lose their jobs will be eligible for a 12-month reprieve on mortgage repayments and could be granted concessions on car loans and other debt, as part of a new deal between the Federal Government and the major banks.

As unemployment rates soar, Treasurer Wayne Swan has pressured the big four banks into helping families who fall victim to the global recession.

In a speech to an Australian employment forum today, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will announce the banks have agreed to post pone loan repayments for up to 12 months for the jobless.

Accrued interest will be rolled back into the loan.

The move is designed to stave off rising mortgage default rates and forced home sales with potential for 800,000 people to be out of work by the middle of next year.

Banks have also agreed to consider interest-only repayment options for other types of debt such as car loans.

Fees for borrowers experiencing financial hardship could also be waived.

The unprecedented step follows the Government's October decision to guarantee bank deposits and wholesale funding for the banks to help stabilise the financial system.

The wholesale guarantee, which cut lending costs for the banks by allowing them to raise foreign debt for domestic mortgages, is understood to have given the Government more bargaining power.

The national dole queue is growing at one of the fastest annual rates on record.

New Centrelink figures reveal a bleak picture, particularly in Queensland.

According to the figures, the Sunshine State had the biggest February increase in those looking for work and receiving Newstart or Youth Allowance payments.

The statistics show that during February the total of Queensland job seekers receiving such allowances rose by 9.9 per cent to almost 73,000.

Centrelink says the number of long-term Queensland job seekers receiving Youth and Newstart allowances grew by 3.2 per cent and the total of job seekers receiving Youth and Newstart allowances increased by 9.9 per cent, the biggest rise compared with all other states and territories.

Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory both have the second-highest increase in job seeker rates, at 3.9 per cent.

Across Australia, short-term job seekers - those who have been looking for work for less than 12 months - leapt by 45 per cent in the six months to February.

During February alone, the national number of short-term job seekers on Centrelink's books grew by more than 16,000 or almost 9 per cent, with 203,173 having joined the dole queue in the past 12 months. The Sun-Herald believes the May 12 federal budget is set to reveal a sharp rise in the expected unemployment rate that will wipe hundreds of millions of dollars from the bottom line as the Government not only collects less tax revenue from fewer workers but also forks out more in unemployment benefits.

Treasury's latest official predictions show an unemployment rate of 7 per cent by the June quarter of next year.

This indicates about 800,000 will be out of work by the middle of 2010.

But that prediction is almost certainly too optimistic, following a slew of bad news internationally and warnings by the Reserve Bank that Australia is in recession.
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Post by Enigma » Tue May 19, 2009 11:33 am

Here we go .... Sydney property on average has dropped 6.7% and national unemployment is now at 5.8%. The 1st "home buyers" grant is being continued for another 3 months before being tapered off in September (lunacy in my opinion but then I'm not a bureaucrat trying to stay elected).

What the below means is that if you were a first home buyer in Perth and had no deposit, even with the grant you are
about to enter negative equity (OMG!!).

The below figures are not from some dodgy developer sponsored property monitor, these are from the dodgy ABS. At least our ABS is not as bad as the U.S. ABS.

Looks like the previous thread comments are a fairly accurate prediction of what is now happening.

Perth house prices drop 10.1 per cent

PERTH house prices have been the hardest hit of any capital city in the past 12 months, dropping a whopping 10.1 per cent, ABS figures show. The Australian house price index fell 2.2 per cent in the March quarter despite a boost in demand for housing from first home buyers, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today. This compares with a downwardly revised 1.2 per cent fall in the December quarter. Houses in Perth were the hardest hit, falling 3.6 per cent in the quarter.

For the year, Perth prics fell a massive 10.1 per cent compared to the national drop of 6.7 per cent. Economists had forecasted average prices to be unchanged during the March quarter and to decline by 3.9 per cent over the year. In NSW prices fell 2.9 per cent over the quarter to be 7.3 per cent down in the year to March. However, Darwin house prices rose 2.2 per cent in the quarter to 10.8 per cent higher than a year earlier.

Percentage changes in the weighted average prices of the eight capital cities:

Mar qtr, Year to Mar qtr

Sydney -2.9 pct -7.3 pct
Melbourne -2.3 pct -6.7 pct
Brisbane -1.1 pct -6.3 pct
Adelaide -0.8 pct -1.9 pct
Perth -3.6 pct -10.1 pct
Hobart 0.1 pct 0.6 pct
Darwin 2.2 pct 10.8 pct
Canberra 0.5 pct -5.1 pct
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Post by Knightmare » Tue May 19, 2009 5:25 pm

Ya know. The thing is, with property values dropping like they have been, now is an opportune time, if you can, to actually buy property.

Things will recover and values will start rising again. Getting in while it's cheap can be a good thing.
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Post by Labbie » Tue May 19, 2009 7:17 pm

I heard this morning that property values in Florida are down 50% and that there is a kind of mini boom going on now.

Now is the time to plan that retirement home Dune!!! :smt023
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Post by Enigma » Wed May 20, 2009 10:17 am

Yep, just gotta try get in at the bottom.... over here its just starting. By the looks of the U.S. things have been going down hill for about 18 months, so maybe it is time ... (difficult to know really).
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Post by Dark Angel » Thu May 21, 2009 6:00 am

Enigma wrote:Yep, just gotta try get in at the bottom.... over here its just starting. By the looks of the U.S. things have been going down hill for about 18 months, so maybe it is time ... (difficult to know really).
LMAO...actually things have been going down for about 8 years 5 months or so...but who's counting anyway.
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Post by Enigma » Sat Jun 06, 2009 12:29 am

Why Government intervention is BAD BAD BAD!

Size of first-home buyers' loans inflating

By Nick Tabakoff and Joe Kelly

* First-home buyers' loans ballooning
* 23 per cent rise in two years
* Bad-debt time bomb ticking

THE average loan size for first-home buyers has risen by $52,000 - or 23 per cent - in the past two years, raising fears that the much-publicised government incentives for young buyers are artificially inflating the market.

A report commissioned by Brandmanagement, a market research firm specialising in the finance sector, says the average size of loans being taken up by young home buyers is jumping by an "unsustainable" amount, The Australian reports.

Drawing on Australian Bureau of Statistics figures, the report has found the average size of the loans rose by $11,400 in the three months to February, after rising by $18,100 in the three months to November.

In total, the first-home buyer average loan size jumped by $52,000 to $280,600 in the two years to February.
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The huge rise in the value of their individual loans in recent months has seen first-home buyers become an increasingly important part of the residential loan market.

The figures show that by February they comprised 26.9 per cent of that market: up from just 17.3 per cent in February 2008.

The actual number of first-home buyers also rose sharply in the year to February 2009: rising from just over 9000 to more than 14,400 in the year to February 2009.

The Federal Government's First Home Owner's Boost scheme - which provides up to $21,000 for new homes and $14,000 for established homes - is now being progressively phased out, and will cut out altogether after the end of this year.

Sydney couple David Halter and Kate Tulip, both 25, are among the thousands of first-home buyers who have entered the market - and taken on a sizeable mortgage - since the beginning of the year.

Last month they bought a two-bedroom apartment in Lindfield, on Sydney's north shore, and Mr Halter said the first-home buyers grant was a major factor in their decision to buy the flat.

But Brandmanagement's principal, Andrew Inwood, said the statistics - which indicate that property prices are rising in line with loan sizes - have raised questions about whether the government incentives were simply being used by consumers to buy into a bubble.

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/s ... 51,00.html
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Re: Australian Property Market

Post by johnsmith23687 » Fri May 28, 2010 2:28 pm

There are wonderful and right information given in this article about the Australian economy in the last decade.The dwelling were very appropriate in information.
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Re: Australian Property Market

Post by danielmid » Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:25 am

That SPAM link is very relevant to the post for once.
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Re: Australian Property Market

Post by danielmid » Sun Oct 23, 2011 7:33 am

danielmid wrote:That SPAM link is very relevant to the post for once.
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Re: Australian Property Market

Post by Gavin Shaw » Tue Oct 25, 2011 10:52 am

danielmid wrote:
danielmid wrote:That SPAM link is very relevant to the post for once.
I assume quoting yourself was to emphasis the spammer?

Anyway, its gone for now.
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Re: Australian Property Market

Post by danielmid » Thu Oct 27, 2011 8:40 am

Well yes and to point out that at least they are posting something relevant for a change.
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